Gross domestic product (GDP) is a barometer of how much a nation’s economy is growing or shrinking. This indicator measures growth based on the level of productivity in a region coupled with the pace at which goods and services produced nationally are acquired. GDP is an economic indicator that is unveiled each quarter in many countries, and the latest quarterly data reflects activity from the previous three-month period. The data can be evaluated on a real or nominal basis, both of which are tied to the pace at which inflation might be growing. Economists revise the quarterly results as much as twice, so market participants can consider preliminary data followed by the interpretation of revised information in subsequent months.
Among the ways to approach GDP include evaluating both nominal and real results. Variations on these results reflect whether or not inflation in the economy, which is when the cost for goods rises and the value of a region’s currency declines, is being considered. The nominal results are those that reflect any growth or contraction in the economy without taking into consideration any inflation. Real gross domestic product, on the other hand, does take inflation into account and reflects growth or contraction in the economy after inflation.
A GDP price index illustrates the change in the direction of economic growth or contraction in a region as compared with the previous year or another period of time. This barometer takes inflation into consideration. Subsequently, economists can identify rising inflation by recognizing a rising trend in the price index. The index is not the only measure of inflation, however, and it is not the most common. This is because the index does not take all of a country’s relevant price exposures into account, and data is reflective activity in the previous quarter as opposed to current activity.
Although GDP is typically reported four times per year, the information has the potential for upward or downward revisions for two months after the original results typically. This might impact the way that economists determine the starting or ending point of a change in the business cycle. For instance, if an economy is entering into a recession, gross domestic product pulls back, or declines, for at least two straight quarters. A change in the revision of this economic indicator could prompt economists to adjust when a change in a business cycle has occurred.